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GBP seen higher as USD declines after inflation data


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Daily Forex Market Report 13-Jan-2023: GBP seen higher as USD declines after inflation data hits the mark

As expected, US inflation eased for the sixth straight month in December, according to Thursday’s data dump.

The greenback, hoping for something hotter, didn’t like this. The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the Thursday trading session 0.9% lower at 101.86, and it continued falling to 101.83 this morning.

GBP/USD ended 60 pips higher 1.221, though the pair fell back to 1.220 in this morning’s Asia trading window.

Sterling likely felt the pinch from underwhelming gross domestic product figures released today. While a contraction was to be expected, a year-on-year expansion of 0.2% was below market forecasts of 0.3%.

Cable falls back on GDP contraction – Source: capital.com Cable falls back on GDP contraction – Source: capital.com

EUR/USD has a strong session yesterday, having moved to a nine-month high of 1.085, where it has so far remained this morning.

Traders should keep an eye out for the balance of trade figures due later. Forecasts point to a narrower deficit of -€-21.1bn.

EUR/GBP closed 0.4% higher at 88.88p, the strongest position since September 2022, though the pair has fallen 10 pips back to 88.78p this morning.

What does FX Risk/Exposure mean?

There are three types of foreign exchange exposure companies face:

  1. Economic exposure
  2. Conversion exposure
  3. Transaction exposure

In short, FX/forex (foreign Exchange) exposure means the risk that an individual or company takes when executing transactions in foreign currencies.

If a business is looking to make transactions globally or in multiple currencies, it's important that they first identify their exposure to risk in order to put a calculated risk management strategy in place.

FX Risk/Exposure Management - How does it work?

Volatile currency markets can have a huge impact on your profits.

Let say that you set a 2021 price for a product, bought in USD including a 5% profit margin, based on the exchange rate when the pound was strongest.

When the pound weakened, your profit margin would soon erode, and leave you with -2.5% profit - based on the same price, from stock bought at the dollar’s peak.

This fluctuation in price could force you to either absorb the loss or increase your prices, with the knock-on effect of untenable prices in your already competitive market.

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We know that it can be time-consuming and challenging to keep up with the innumerable ongoing events that continuously affect the global market mood.

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